There are no simple formulas for profit in any unregulated speculative market that are guaranteed to generate a return exceeding the interest rate in good times and in bad. If such simple formulas existed, then skillful speculators would apply them immediately to extract whatever profits they might yield, assuming that such activity is not impeded by government regulations. If, for instance, a simple and reliable method existed for predicting price rises such as that of Good G in the previous example, then speculators would quickly take advantage of it, buying supplies of G in advance until no speculative profit (beyond interest-rate return) remained to be made. Consequently, speculation cannot offer automatic profits. Speculative profit must, in the long run, be earned by those who have acquired skill in this specialty.

For the same reason, there cannot exist any simple, straightforward method by which investors can foresee rises (exceeding interest-rate return) and declines in stock-market prices, if capital flow is not impeded by regulation. With thousands of investors continually applying a vast array of technical tools (often aided by computers) to stock prices, searching for intrinsic and extrinsic factors that might signal such turns, any simple technique for stock-market prediction has already been fully exploited. Only those few who have developed unusual insights into the most subtle effects realize exceptional returns, except in the short run, when high profits and losses may be obtained by chance alone. Those who believe they have developed an easy, reliable method of out-pacing the market are ultimately defeated by their deficient understanding of market processes.